Supreme
Court Might Kill ObamaCare Before Election -- If Obama's Lucky
Larry Elder for Townhall.com
Why did the Obama
administration, after dragging out the various court challenges to ObamaCare,
suddenly step on the gas?
The administration surprised court watchers by passing up a chance
to slow down ObamaCare's long march to an eventual Supreme Court ruling. In
failing to request a hearing by all the appeals court judges of the 11th
Circuit -- to overturn an anti-ObamaCare decision by three of its members --
the administration now puts the matter on a faster track to the Supreme Court.
The court will likely agree to hear the case because two appellate
circuit courts, the 11th and 6th, have issued contradictory rulings -- one
striking down the individual mandate as unconstitutional, and the other
upholding it. This confusion practically guarantees a hearing by the top court,
probably months before next year's election.
What provoked the administration's change of heart?
Obama supposedly did not want a Supreme Court decision so soon
because, pro or con, the ruling figures to play large as a re-election issue.
On the other hand, ObamaCare already is an issue, with the President's
opponent undoubtedly planning to hammer him with it.
But if the court strikes down ObamaCare -- especially with a 5-4
split -- Obama can argue that with his re-election, the next opening gets
filled with another Sotomayor/Kagan-like liberal who would have supported
ObamaCare. If the vacancy comes from the conservative side, Obama can fulfill a
liberal dream of switching the court's majority from center-right -- four
conservatives and the Anthony Kennedy "swing" vote -- to a left-wing
majority.
Obama's new faster-track tactic might also turn on this: Obama
expects the Supreme Court to side with him. If the President wins in court, his
Republican opponent will still argue against the merits of ObamaCare. But he or
she could no longer flatly call it "unconstitutional," since the
court would have just ruled otherwise.
So how would a Supreme Court defeat make Obama lucky in his bid
for a second term?
ObamaCare remains unpopular, with a plurality of Americans wanting
it repealed. Unlike major historic safety-net legislation like Social Security,
Medicare and Medicaid, ObamaCare received no opposition party Senate votes --
none. A majority of state attorneys general either filed or joined lawsuits to
overturn the mandate that requires practically all Americans to purchase health
insurance.
Romneycare, used as a model for ObamaCare, at best fails to live
up to its promises. True, most residents of Massachusetts support Romneycare,
and Gov. Mitt Romney's successor praises it. An AP "fact-check" on
Romneycare, relying on an MIT economist who helped design Romneycare, pretty
much pronounced it a success. But the free-market think tank National Center
for Policy Analysis sees the Massachusetts health plan differently. Among its
findings:
"There has been no apparent change in self-reported unmet
needs. Remarkably, one-third of adults within 300 percent of the federal
poverty level report that they were unable to meet a health care need within
the past 12 months for 'any reason.' ...
"But (there has been) a statistically significant increase in
ER traffic among those within 300 percent of the federal poverty level! This is
consistent with a survey of 11 Massachusetts-area hospitals that found ER use
rose 4 percent. ...
"New patients must wait from a month to six weeks to see a
family doctor or an internist. Make that two months in Boston for a family
practitioner. ... About half of all family doctors and internists won't see new
patients or accept the insurance provided in the Commonwealth Connector
(Massachusetts state authority's broker for private insurance). This was up
sharply from 2006."
The Economist, a British center-left magazine, calls Romneycare
"a legacy (Romney) can be proud of." But, the Economist points out:
"He contrasts (Romneycare) with ObamaCare by claiming that (Romneycare)
introduced no new taxes. This is pretty clearly a fib. The law wasn't
implemented until after he was gone, and the fact that he didn't raise taxes to
pay for it simply meant he refused to deal with the funding issue. His
successor ... had to hike business fees by $100 million and to raise the
cigarette tax by $1 a pack in 2008 to pay for the program's subsidies. In any
case, Commonwealth Care is funded partly through matching funds from the
federal Medicaid funding ... ." A legacy to be proud of?
Two-thirds of doctors, according to Investors Business Daily
polls, "oppose" ObamaCare and predict lower-quality health care. A
poll by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. finds that nearly one-third of
businesses plan to drop heath insurance for their employees after 2014, when much
of ObamaCare goes into effect.
True, the American Medical Association supports ObamaCare. But
only 17 percent of doctors belong to the organization, and many dropped their
membership because of AMA's support of ObamaCare. Americans consistently rank
physicians among the most respected of professionals. Yet the President, a man
with virtually no private-sector experience, arrogantly ignores doctors'
objections.
Obama, as with his fight to end Bush-era tax rates for the
"rich," will also lose this battle -- if he is lucky. A Supreme Court
rejection of the ObamaCare mandate would immediately boost the economy and, by
extension, Obama's prospect for re-election.
How ironic.
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